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By Yera Park
Today, China carries the largest aging population in the world. And, it is likely that China will continue to carry this burden for the next fifty years. On September 25, 2015, Dr. Hu Jiye, professor of Law and Economics at China University of Political Science and Law, addressed the first cohort of the Tsinghua-Johns Hopkins SAIS Dual-Degree Master’s Program on the grave issue of China’s aging population and its implications. Alarming statistics from the United Nations Population Division revealed that the declining ratio of China’s senior citizens (60 years or older) to the working population will be 1 to 4 by 2050. This statistic shows the sharp decline of the working population since 2002, which was 1 to 9. Dr. Hu argued that, among other factors, the “One Family One Child” policy deepened this aging crisis. |
杨宇迪 供稿
作为世界上拥有老龄化人口最多的国家，中国在未来的五十年里很可能依然保持这一“世界之最”。在这一背景下，来自中国政法大学法和经济研究中心的胡继晔教授在9月25日来到清华，与清华约翰霍普金斯SAIS双硕士项目的第一届学生探讨了中国老龄化人口的议题与其影响。 |
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The World Bank recommended implementing three different pension pillars to address the declining working population: first pillar (mandatory social insurance) 30-40%; second pillar (occupational pension) 30-40%; and third pillar (commercial insurance, saving and investment) 30%. Currently, China suffers from significantly weaker second and third pillar – only 0.5% of companies have voluntarily joined the second pillar. Additionally, the “zero pillar”, which is the urban and rural residential pension insurance program designed for the transition of economic development, adds to the increasingly heavy burden on the government’s fiscal system.
In response to the aging challenge in China, the Ministry of Human Resources and Social Securities led several successful fundamental reforms on the social security system. In 1997, the reform combined a social pool and individual account in the first pillar pension plan, which covered up to 340 million workers. The “zero pillar” was introduced in 2009 to reach informal workers and the unemployed. It reached over 500 million workers with an average of 85 RBM per month in 2014. Further reform was implemented to strengthen the pension system for public servants and build a pyramid pension system. In 2014, the first and the second pillar integrated for public employees. This reform increased the mandatory contribution for close to 40 million public employees. Despite the reforms, China continues to struggle with strengthening the pension system to address the declining working population. Dr. Hu proposed pension investment to secure the future of the pension system. Article 69 of the Social Insurance Law, which was officially implemented in July 2011, stipulates that “the social insurance fund shall, preconditioned by secured safety, preserve and increase its value by investment and operation regulated by the State Council”. On August 17, 2015, in accordance with Article 69 and based on Dr. Hu’s recommendation, the State Council allowed the first pillar pension to invest 30% of its fund in the stock market.[1] The equity investment would comprise of 60% in the Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite Index and the remaining 40% in the Standard and Poor’s 500 Index.[2] Dr. Hu argued that this carefully calculated ratio on equity investment could promote healthy development of the Chinese capital markets as well as benefit the Chinese pension system. He continued to stress that safety, profitability and liquidity should always be the principles of pension investment. Dr. Hu further stressed the need to improve the second pillar pension system. Currently, the Chinese second pillar pension market is extremely lean at 2%, while the U.S. is at 110% and the Netherlands at 150%. Dr. Hu’s future research will focus on incorporating the Prudent Person Rule, the British pension acts and the American Employee Retirement Income Security Act into China’s existing pension regulation to secure the future of the current pension system. We want to hear from you. Please follow our public account and share your comments and questions. Two questions for thought: 1) Why does not the U.S. first pillar invest in its stock market?; 2) How can China enlarge its second pillar pension market? [1] The current Interim Provisions on the Administration of Investment by the National Social Security Fund Article 28: The investment in securities investment funds and stocks shall not be higher than 40% of the total assets of social insurance fund. [2] Jiye Hu, An Empirical Approach on Regulating China’s Pension Investment, Journal of Law and Economics, Vol. 37, June 2014, 495-516. |
世界银行曾针对劳动人口下降的国家提出一个由三大支柱组成的养老体系的解决方案：第一支柱为强制性社会保险，即国家基本养老保险；第二支柱为职业年金；第三支柱为职工个人储蓄性养老保险。而迄今为止，中国依然面临着第二、第三支柱十分薄弱的问题——例如，中国仅有约0.5%的公司自愿实行了职业年金制度。与此同时，为了解决在经济结构转型中面临的一些特殊情况，中国特有的“第零支柱”——城乡居民养老保险计划，尽管解决了更多人的养老保险问题，但也给政府的财政增添了大量的负担。
为了面对中国的老龄化挑战，人力资源和社会保障部近年来也在社会保障体系上做出了若干成功的根本性改革。1997年，改革将第一支柱中的养老金分为了社会统筹和个人账户两部分，并成功覆盖了超过3.4亿的劳动人口。2009年，“第零支柱”诞生，解决了大量非正式雇佣工人和失业人群的社会保障问题。截止去年，城乡居民基础养老金标准最低已经提高到了每人每月85元。在进一步深化改革的过程中，公务员养老保险制度的建设也同样得到了加强，以建立一个金字塔式的养老体系。2014年，国务院正式发布《关于机关事业单位工作人员养老保险制度改革的决定》。方案明确，机关、事业单位建立与企业相同基本养老保险制度，实行单位和个人缴费，改革退休费计发办法，近4000万机关事业单位人员被纳入国家统一的养老体系中。然而，在这些改革之后，中国仍然面临着进一步加强养老体系以面对持续减少的劳动人口的需要。胡继晔教授建议可以通过养老金投资的方式来保障养老体系的未来。2011年正式颁布施行的《社会保障法》第六十九条规定，“社会保险基金在保证安全的前提下，按照国务院规定投资运营实现保值增值。社会保险基金不得违规投资运营，不得用于平衡其他政府预算，不得用于兴建、改建办公场所和支付人员经费、运行费用、管理费用，或者违反法律、行政法规规定挪作其他用途。”2015年8月17日，如同该条款的表述和胡教授的建议一样，国务院批准了将最高30%的国家基本养老保险基金投资于股市。[1]该投资的股票组成将会有60%的上证综合指数和40%的S&P500组成。[2]胡教授认为，这一经过仔细计算的股市投资比例，不仅可以有益于维护中国的养老保险体系，同时还可以促进中国资本市场的健康发展。他反复强调，安全性、盈利性和流动性始终是养老金投资的原则。 胡教授随后进一步强调了发展养老系统第二支柱的迫切需要。目前，中国的所谓第二支柱的养老金资产在GDP中占比还不到2%，而相比之下，第二支柱养老金占GDP比例最高的国家是荷兰，在150%左右，美国也达到110%左右。他表示，未来他的研究会着重关注如何更好地将“谨慎人原则”、英国退休金法案和美国雇员退休收入保障法案三者与中国现有的养老金管理体制结合，来保障养老体系的未来。 如果你对上文主题或以下问题有什么想法想要和我们分享，欢迎你关注我们的公众号并将这些想法发送给我们。
[1] 《全国社会保障基金投资管理暂行办法》第28条规定，“划入社保基金的货币资产的投资，按成本计算，应符合下列规定：……(三)证券投资基金、股票投资的比例不得高于40%。” [2] Jiye Hu, An Empirical Approach on Regulating China’s Pension Investment, Journal of Law and Economics, Vol. 37, June 2014, 495-516. |
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