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By Byungnam Jin
On Wednesday, October 28, our “Simulated Think Tank” class was joined by Dr. Zhao Tong, an associate at Carnegie’s Nuclear Policy Program based in the Carnegie-Tsinghua Center for Global Policy. Dr. Zhao has a diverse educational background; for his undergraduate studies, he majored in Physics at Tsinghua University but became interested in the subject of international relations, which led him to pursue a M.A degree in this field. During his lecture, he discussed the role of science and technology in current international security issues, specifically in arms control issues. Dr. Zhao began his talk by introducing three types of strategic nuclear weapons: ICBM (Intercontinental Ballistic Missile), Strategic Bomber and Strategic Nuclear Submarine, the previous two of which are the two major types deployed by the United States. According to Dr. Zhao, there has always been arms competition between the nuclear-owned states. During the cold war, the US and Soviet Union built large stockpiles of nuclear weapon; 1965-1970, the US had more than 30,000 nuclear weapons, while Soviet Union had more than 40,000 during 1985-1990. Dr. Zhao continued his talk by introducing two of the nuclear targeting options. In nuclear warfare, enemy targets are divided into two options: counter force and counter value. Counter force strategy mainly targets military infrastructure, especially nuclear facilities, while leaving the civilian and industrial infrastructure (counter value target) as undamaged as possible. On the other hand, counter value means destroying civilian and non-military facilities, usually as a mean of retaliating for the first attack by enemy state. The increased threat posed by nuclear weapons led to added layers of missile defense, which is a defensive system or technology involved in detecting, tracking and interception of attacking missiles. On March 23, 1983, President Ronald Reagan publicly proposed a missile defense system called Strategic Defense Initiative (SDI), asserting that the US should build a comprehensive missile defense system in order to neutralize nuclear threat of the Soviet Union. SDI consists of many different components, such as a ground-based program, air-based program and space-based program. Since the Cold War ended in 1990s, the idea of SDI has been largely scaled down, but consistent investment to research and development led to a solid foundation for the current MD systems deployed by the United States. |
2015年10月28日上午，清华-卡内基全球政策中心驻会学者赵通博士为清华-霍普金斯项目学生带来了一场关于核安全与政策的讲座。赵博士拥有多元化的教育背景，在清华获得了物理学士学位，在对军控和国际关系产生了浓厚兴趣之后，他又在相关领域获取了硕士和博士学位。赵通博士的讲座围绕该科学技术在当代国际安全领域的作用展开，并重点介绍了科技在军控领域的应用。
赵通博士从战略核武器的三种类型谈起：洲际弹道导弹、战略轰炸机和战略核潜艇。这三种武器中，前两种是美国部署的主要手段。在有核国家中，军备竞赛的现象一直存在着。在冷战期间，美苏分别建造了规模庞大的核武库。从1965到1970年，美国拥有超过3万具核武器，而苏联在1985至1990年间拥有多达4万具核武器。赵通博士继而介绍了两种核武器瞄准选择。在核战争中，敌对目标一般被分为两种，既反力和反值。“反力”战略主要针对军事基础设施，特别是核设施，但且对民用和产业基础设施基本不予攻击。“反值”战略则围绕摧毁民用和非军事设施，一般用作对应敌国第一波核打击的报复手段。 随着核武器威胁的不断升高，新的防御措施也不断出现。反导系统是一种涉及侦测、跟踪、拦截来袭导弹的防御系统。1983年3月23日，时任美国总统的罗纳德·里根公开提议建立被称为“主动战略防御(SDI)”的美国的导弹防御系统，主张美国应该建设综合性导弹防御系统以应对来自苏联的核威胁。SDI系统由多个不同部分组成，例如陆基部分，空基部分和天基部分。然而，随着冷战在1990年告一段落，美国对SDI的重视程度也大为下降，但是对于研究和开发项目的长期投资使得美国具有发展目前导弹防御系统（MD）的坚实基础。 |
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Starting in 1970s, the United States and Soviet Union commenced bilateral conferences and negotiations on the issue of arms control: Strategic Arms Limitation Talk (SALT). The two round of talks and agreements are SALT1 and SALT2, however SALT2 was never ratified by the US Senate due to Soviet Union’s invasion to Afghanistan and the Soviet Union’s military troops in Cuba. Subsequent discussions took place under the Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (START). START is considered to be the largest and most complex arms control treaty in history, its final implementation resulted in the removal of approximently 80 percent of all strategic nuclear weapons. Today, the United States has more than 5,000 nuclear weapons, while Russia holds slightly more.
As the nuclear-owned states have tried to reduce their nuclear stockpiles, the role of nuclear forces has been gradually decreased. Instead, the role of missile defense and advanced conventional weapons has been more significant. For instance, China’s current top security concern is not the U.S’s nuclear weapons, but its combination of offensive and defensive strategic capabilities. Dr. Zhao stressed the necessity of sound technical analysis in policy making procedures, and that the lack of knowledge about the military’s technological capabilities among some policy makers can lead to threat assessment mistakes. Deploying THAAD (Terminal High Altitude Area Defense) in South Korea is a good example; according to Dr. Zhao, THAAD has no capabilities to intercept China’s missile, only detects. However, many Chinese political scientists, and even some senior policy makers, protested due to a lack of thorough understanding of THAAD. Dr. Zhao concluded his talk by stressing the role of science and technology in solving various global security problems. One of the most important roles should be motivating state engagement in the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty (CTBT). In order to make the treaty more acceptable, scientists should develop international monitoring and detecting systems, which are able to detect every illegal test. Four core technologies used in the monitoring and detecting system include seismic, hydroacoustic, radionuclide and infrasound. |
从上世纪70年代开始，美国和苏联开始就军控问题进行双边磋商，这一系列会议被称为限制战略武器会谈（SALT），两轮会议分别被称为SALT1和SALT2。但是由于苏联入侵阿富汗和在古巴的军事存在，第二轮会议SALT2却从未获得美国国会的批准。此后进行的美苏谈判则在《削减战略武器条约(START)》的框架下进行。START被认为是历史上规模最为庞大，内容最为复杂的军控条约，它的执行表意味着占总数高达80%的战略核武器被消除。时至今日，美国拥有超过5000具核武器，而俄罗斯的核武库存量还略大于美国。
有核国家纷纷减小核武库存，核武器所扮演的角色总体别削弱。与此对应，导弹防御系统和先进的常规武器系统正变得越来越重要。例如，目前最令中国担心的安全威胁不是美国的核武器，而是美国进攻和防御结合的战略能力。赵通博士强调，在决策过程中对于技术的准确合理分析是非常必要的，而对于军事技术缺乏理解和知识可能导致决策者的政策失误。在韩国部署末段高空区域防御(THAAD)就是一个很好的例证。赵通博士说，THAAD并没有拦截中国导弹的能力，但是却可以侦测。然而，很多中国国际关系领域的专家和一些高级决策者却因为缺乏了解而对部署THAAD大为反对。 赵通博士强调了科学技术在解决国际安全问题中的重要作用，并以此作为这次讲座的尾声。科学技术最重要的职能之一就是促使各国以更积极的姿态投入到《全面禁止核试验条约》的谈判中。为了让条约更使各方合意，科学家应开发国际监控和侦测系统，对每一次非法核试验进行侦测。四项可用于监控和侦测系统的技术分别是地震探测技术、水声学探测技术、放射性探测技术和次声技术。 |