America’s Asia Policy with Douglas H. Paal

美国的亚洲政策

2017年11月15日，卡内基国际和平基金会副会长包道格（Douglas H. Paal）和清华-约翰·霍普金斯双硕士项目的学生进行了会谈。包道格先生向同学们讲述了他在美国政府内外任职的经历，并交流了他对中美关系及亚太地区发展的认识。

Mr. Paal began the discussion by providing his thoughts on US President Donald Trump’s recent inaugural tour of Asia, with the consequential visit to Beijing receiving a particular focus. Although President Trump was well received by Chinese President Xi Jinping, building on the positive personal relationship established during their first meeting in Florida earlier in the year, Mr. Paal noted a dearth of substantive achievements and characterized the visit as reflective of a lack of ambition in the Trump administration’s China policy.

In keeping with this theme, while the administration has heralded the announcement of $250 billion in trade deals between the US and China as a major accomplishment, Mr. Paal expressed a degree of skepticism as to the number of these agreements that would ultimately reach fruition. Furthermore, Mr. Paal argued that both the United States and the international community at large would have been better served had the administration maintained continuity with its predecessors by insisting on an “open economic system”, rather then President Trump’s preferred vision for the global economic system, “free and fair trade”. As such, Mr. Paal saw President Trump’s effort to convince President Xi Jinping to support the latter as a step backwards for economic policy.

Mr. Paal also criticized the administration’s sluggish progress on regional issues of critical importance and suggested a lack of preparedness, especially in comparison to Chinese counterparts. Mr. Paal pointed to the absence of any significant agreement regarding the escalating crisis on the Korean Peninsula, as well as the Trump administration’s failure to properly brief partner countries prior to a speech unveiling an “Indo-Pacific Strategy” between the US, Australia, Japan, and India, as evidence of this fact.

Instead, Mr. Paal offered that President Trump would have found greater success had he leveraged the opportunity afforded by the tour to present a new “high-concept” way of managing US-China relations. Nonetheless, Mr. Paal noted that President Trump’s trip could certainly have been worse, as he recalled his experience accompanying President George H.W. Bush as part of the National Security Council staff during a 1992 trip to Asia in which the president vomited on the Japanese Prime Minister.

The topic of discussion then moved to Mr. Paal’s history in government, as well as his experience in the think tank world. He described his time serving as a CIA analyst in Myanmar from 1982-1984, which was marked by the attempted assassination of South Korean President Chun Doo-hwan in Yangon by North Korean agents. Mr. Paal later served on President Ronald Reagan’s National Security Council and became National Security Advisor for East Asia under President George H.W. Bush. With the switch from a Republican to a Democratic administration in the early 1990s, Mr. Paal left the government and started his own think tank focused on Asian policy. However, he eventually returned to the public sector to work under President George W. Bush, serving as the director of the American Institute in Taiwan, America’s unofficial representative office in Taiwan, from 2002-2006. Mr. Paal then served as vice chairman of JPMorgan Chase International before finally moving to Carnegie, where he has been for the past ten years.

Mr. Paal then answered questions from students for the final part of the discussion. The first question asked Mr. Paal to elaborate on his time as Director of AIT as well as his views on the future of Cross-Strait relations. He noted that his time as director was a tense period in US-Taiwan relations shaped by disagreements between the Bush administration and Chen Shui-bian, Taiwan’s leader at the time. Despite more recent personnel changes at the organs responsible for China’s Taiwan policy, Mr. Paal believes that the current status quo will remain largely intact for the foreseeable future. However, he noted that many economic, military, and regional trends are not moving in Taiwan’s favor.

A question was then asked about developments in Southeast Asia. Mr. Paal noted that while relations between the US and many ASEAN countries weakened in the latter days of the Obama administration, which heavily emphasized human rights, his discussions with many ASEAN leaders suggested that they were optimistic that relations would improve with President Trump.

The discussion concluded with Mr. Paal’s opinions on the future of US-China relations. He criticized the idea that war between the two powers was inevitable, noting that concepts such as the “Thucydides Trap” are hardly relevant in the age of nuclear weapons. Nonetheless, Mr. Paal does not believe that managing the US-China relationship will be easy, and he sees little potential for any “grand bargain.” He stated that the US and China can deal with issues on a one-by-one basis to find areas of mutual benefit, arguing that the Obama administration’s decision to refrain from joining the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank was a missed opportunity for such cooperation. Mr. Paal concluded that that no matter how the relationship develops, America has played a significant role in providing a secure and stable environment for the economic development of the Asia-Pacific, and the US will continue to play an important role in the future.

Mr. Paal imparted valuable knowledge for members of the class seeking careers in government service, as well as for those interested in working in the think tank world. The insights gained from his personal experience contributing to the development of US-China relations also provided important context for students as they prepare to enter the field of international affairs.

包道格先生将美国总统唐纳德·特朗普上任后的亚洲之行作为切入点。尽管中国国家主席习近平和特朗普总统在佛罗里达州海湖庄园进行了第一次亲密会晤，并建立了良好的私人关系，但是包道格先生认为这次会晤没有达成太多实质性的成果，反映出特朗普这届政府在中国政策上缺乏考虑。尽管政府官方宣布中美达成了2500亿美元的贸易订单，包道格先生对这些协议能否全部实现持怀疑态度。他提到，美国和国际社会普遍坚持和传承的是“开放的经济体系”，而不是特朗普所推崇的“全球经济体系”，即“自由和平等的贸易”。因此，他认为特朗普试图劝说习近平支持后者是经济政策的倒退。

包道格先生也批评了该届美国政府在非常重要的区域问题上缺乏作为和准备，特别是对比中国的行动。例如，在不断恶化的朝鲜半岛问题上缺乏有效的协议约束，政府没有在总统发表演讲之前简要介绍“印度-太平洋战略”以及其中涉及的国家。这两个例子都可以作为政府对区域问题缺乏远见卓识的重要证据。

包道格先生提出，特朗普总统此次亚洲之行的表现可圈可点，通过不同的方式处理中美关系也许会取得更大的成效。即使这样，包道格先生也承认特朗普总统的亚洲之行还不算太糟，特别是与1992年乔治·布什的亚洲之行相比。那年，他作为国家安全局的成员随同布什总统访问亚洲，见证了总统在日本首相面前呕吐的尴尬场景。

之后，讨论的话题转向了包道格先生在政府和智库任职的经历。他简单介绍了1982-1984年间他在缅甸担任中情局分析员的时光，这段时间最瞩目的事件就是朝鲜特工在仰光企图暗杀韩国总统全斗焕。之后，在里根总统任期内，他开始在国家安全局任职，并在老布什总统任期内担任国家安全局东亚事务顾问。在上世纪90年代民主党取代共和党执政时期，包道格先生离开政府，开办了自己的东亚政策智库。之后他又回到公共部门在小布什政府内任职，于2002年至2006年担任美国在台协会会长和美国驻台湾非正式代表。如今，他已经在卡内基工作十年。在来卡内基任职之前，他还曾任摩根大通担任国际银行副董事长。

在讨论的最后，包道格先生回答了同学们的提问。首先，同学们请他介绍了他在担任美国在台协会会长时的工作细节，同时请教了他对两岸关系的看法。他回忆道，当时由于布什政府和台湾地区领导人陈水扁之间的分歧很大，美国和台湾的关系非常紧张。至于两岸关系，他认为尽管近期大陆政府有关部门发生了不小的人事变动，但在可见的未来里，两岸关系会继续保持现状。他也特别提到，经济、军事和地区事务等领域的发展趋势未必会如台湾所愿。接着包道格先生与同学们讨论了关于东南亚发展的问题。包道格先生指出，在奥巴马总统执政时期，由于在人权问题上的分歧，美国和东南亚的关系有所弱化，但是在特朗普总统时代美国和东南亚国家关系的恢复和提升是可预期的。

包道格先生在中美关系未来走向上做了最后的总结。他批评了“两国之间的战争不可避免”这一观点，他认为修昔底德陷阱在核武器时代下几乎不可能出现。但即使如此，他并不认为处理中美关系是一件容易的事情，而且在目前的谈判过程中较大程度的妥协基本上不会发生。他强调中美可以在某些领域寻求共同利益，但是奥巴马政府拒绝加入亚洲基础设施投资银行就错失了这样的机会。他总结道，无论双边关系如何发展，美国不论是现在还是将来都始终会在维护亚太地区安全和稳定上扮演重要角色。

包道格先生还给在座的学生分享了在政府和智库任职的经验，他个人丰富的经历和对中美关系深刻的思考带给在场致力于从事国际事务相关工作的同学们很大的启发。